ASA Research: Staffing Jobs to Signal Recession End

Editor's note: The following is an excerpt from a news release being sent today to business and labor reporters in the top 100 markets across the nation.

A sustained upturn in staffing industry employment would signal the end of the current recession and suggest that overall nonfarm employment would begin to grow about three months later, according to research released today by the American Staffing Association.

Staffing industry employment has long been considered a popular indicator of current economic conditions and a precursor of overall employment trends. Recent ASA research confirmed this conventional wisdom, but added important nuance.

Staffing industry employment is a strong coincident economic indicator when the economy is emerging from a recession.
Staffing industry employment is a leading indicator for nonfarm employment—by about three months when the economy is emerging from a recession.
"This is the first time that an upswing in staffing jobs has been so closely linked with economic recovery," says ASA vice president Steve Berchem, CSP. A paper describing the research is available on the ASA Web site, americanstaffing.net.

The ASA Staffing Index provides the only near-real time measure of weekly changes in staffing jobs. The index has been improved so that, beginning June 23, there will be only a nine-day lag between the close of a payroll week and the reporting of the index results.